The Catlin Arctic Survey combines a pioneering feat of human endurance with scientific
discovery: an accurate mapping of a transect across one of Earth’s largest geophysical
surface features: the Arctic Ocean's sea ice cover.
Pen Hadow using
Mora
Ice Drill in Little Cornwallis Island, Nov 2008
Such a surface Survey has never before been attempted, and the need for the information
has never been greater. Current estimates for the disappearance of the Arctic Ocean's
sea ice cover vary from 100 years away down to just 4 years from now. Whatever happens,
the consequences of its meltdown will be of global significance in terms of sea
level rise(due to thermal expansion of the oceans), the geo-politics of energy resources,
rainfall patterns and the availability of water supplies and, of course, the impact
on biodiversity, including polar bear.
This endeavour will provide a surface-based dataset, which will then be made available
to scientists. Its data will be used to improve the accuracy and reliability of
supercomputer models forecasting the timing of the disappearance of the sea ice,
and the associated impacts for our changing global climate – and beyond.
The Catlin Arctic Survey’s highly experienced team will be travelling on foot, hauling
sledges from approximately 81°N 130°W, across 1000 km of drifting sea ice, for over
90 days, in temperatures as low as -50°C, towards the North Geographic Pole.
The surface-based team has the experience to continue the Survey through blizzards,
white-outs, fog, and across ice rubble-fields, even donning immersion suits when
open water and thin ice crossings deem it necessary.
Over 30 different types of measurement and sample will be taken by the surface team
(some continuously, others hourly, daily or weekly) from the water column (using
a
SeaCat
CTD Profiler), the ice/snow layers and the atmosphere. Such information will build
a benchmark data set on the state of the ice, allowing for a better understanding
of the interaction between the processes affecting the condition of the sea ice.
The team’s ground-penetrating radar (SPRITE) will distinguish between the base
ice layer and any over-lying snow layer, as it is the thickness of the ice which
is an important parameter for lifespan estimates by computer modellers.
The most frequently cited date for the seasonal disappearance of the Arctic Ocean's
sea ice is the
UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s
2050-2100, based on the known rate of its shrinking surface area, and the IPCC’s
long-range global climate forecasts.
However, the supercomputer model developed by one of the world’s leading research
teams at the
US Navy’s Department of Oceanography,
which focuses on the rate of the sea ice's declining volume based on ice thickness
estimates (as opposed to shrinkage rates), indicates sea ice loss within dramatically
less time – just 4 years from now. But outputs from such models are a function of
the quality of the data put in. The Catlin Arctic Survey’s data will allow for the
re-evaluation of satellite and submarine digitised observations of recent decades
– and future ones – and thereby improve the accuracy and confidence of the modelled
outputs.
Climate modellers will be able to use the findings coming out of the Survey data
to help validate or modify the globally recognised projections made in the IPCC’s
“Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis” report; and to factor the survey
data into related areas of scientific work, all of which has depended on the sea
ice data available from satellites and submarines (hitherto unverified by a comprehensive
ground-truth survey).
The IPCC’s future report: “Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability” may also reflect
the improved understanding about the melting sea ice and the consequent collateral
global impacts.
Evidence for the earlier meltdown date would provide fresh impetus to resolve through
international agreements the more sustainable and responsible management of the
increasingly accessible natural resources, revealed as the ice recedes. The survey
will assist scientists in providing policy-makers with higher resolution forecasts
than are made to date, which in turn will facilitate decisions where previously
indecision has existed.
With the Arctic Ocean and surrounding high Arctic environment more responsive and
vulnerable to climate change than most, the urgency for action to protect it in
a variety of ways is greater than almost anywhere on Earth.
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And they are off
Posted by
Ian Wesley
A big day today and spirits were high. After a prolonged packing session the Ice Team are out on the ice for their first mini expedition together. They left with sleds packed high and bristling with antennas....more
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Friday, 16th January 2009
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Sunday, 09th November 2008
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